GitHub and Claude Are Down Three Out of Four Days
146 out of 198 days, at least Github or Claude had an incident. GitHub averages 91% uptime, Claude 80%. Six months of status page data visualized.
GitHub's average uptime since September: 91%. Claude's: 80.4%.
146 out of 198 days, at least one of them had an incident.
We've gone fully agentic at Wyndly, my telehealth allergy practice committed to curing everyone's allergies forever. Doctors, care teams, engineers all running agents daily. When these services go down, care decisions slow down.
Maybe your git push went through. Probably.
Six months ago, I'd have migrated immediately. Then I looked at what happened on Christmas, 2025.
198 days. 146 with at least one incident.
The Heatmap of Hell
The heatmap above should be all green. Instead, it's red, very, very often. Green days are perfect. Red days are bad.
- 146 out of 198 days (73.7%), at least one of these two services had an incident. Three out of every four days.
- 74 days both GitHub and Claude were down simultaneously.
- March 2026 is the worst month on record for Claude at 62.4% average uptime. GitHub is at 87.9%. Both services have been getting worse since December.
GitHub has accumulated 418 hours of total outage time since September, over seventeen full days. Claude has accumulated 934 hours, nearly thirty-nine days.
Is downtime related?
I ran the correlation between GitHub and Claude daily outage minutes: r = 0.197. A weak correlation. Not great, not terrible.
That was the wrong question.
The severity of outages is uncorrelated: a bad day for GitHub says nothing about how bad Claude's day will be. But when they fail is strikingly similar. Like Khalid and Dove Cameron, they go down together.
Outages occur together
Both services cluster incidents between 12:00 and 20:00 UTC. Hour-of-day correlation: r = 0.64.
Deployments happen during the workday. Traffic spikes during the workday. The humans who push the code that causes the incidents are mostly in US time zones. So all that load concentrates, and then, boom, outages. Unfortunately, outages when you're trying to work and use these services.
Contagion
When GitHub has an incident on day T, the probability that Claude has an incident on day T+1 rises from a 63.1% baseline to 75.8%. The reverse holds: Claude down on day T lifts GitHub's next-day probability from 48.0% to 58.1%.
I don't think one service is causing the other to go down. But it's not out of the question.
The coincidence rate has more than doubled. In September 2025, about 23% of days saw both services with incidents. By February-March 2026, that number is above 47%.
Christmas every weekend
From December 24 through January 1, Claude had zero incidents. Not degraded. Not minor. Zero. GitHub had one. Then January 2 hit, and both services returned to their normal cadence immediately.
That holiday window isn't special. It happens every week(end).
GitHub is up 89.3% on weekdays and 96.5% on weekends. Incidents touch 62% of weekdays and 11% of weekends. Claude shows the same pattern: 92.5% weekday, 97.8% weekend. Tuesday through Thursday is the danger zone. Sunday is practically a different service.
These systems don't fail randomly. They fail when engineers are working. A broken system breaks on Christmas too — these ones work fine on Christmas, on Saturdays, at 3 AM. They buckle on Tuesday afternoon.
What this means
The coincidence rate — days both were down — climbed from 23% in September to 47% in March. It's not random. It's because they're winning.
GitHub and Claude are the default stack for agentic development. Every team that adopts AI-assisted coding adds load to both services in the same business-hours window.
The adoption wave won't wait for the infrastructure to catch up. Nobody's going back to writing code by hand because Claude was down on a Tuesday.
Methodology
What counts as downtime
These numbers are based on self-reported status page data. An incident counts as downtime if the service operator marked it with impact minor, major, or critical. Incidents marked none and scheduled maintenance windows are excluded.
Daily uptime is the fraction of minutes in the day not covered by an active incident: 1 - (outage_minutes / 1440). Overlapping windows are merged before summing. A day with a one-hour incident scores 95.8%. Multi-day incidents count against every calendar day they span.
This means the numbers are a floor, not a ceiling. Status pages are conservative — they get updated after engineers confirm a problem, and they get closed before every affected user recovers. The real degradation window is almost always longer than what's recorded here.
Data sources: mrshu/github-statuses for GitHub downtime windows, https://status.claude.com/history for Claude incidents. Analysis covers September 1, 2025 through March 17, 2026 (198 days).
Aakash Shah is the co-founder of Wyndly, bringing allergy care to all Americans, with humans superpowered by AI. When the infrastructure goes down, care decisions slow down too. It's why his team thinks about these failure patterns constantly. He also has his own Yegge Level 8 Agent Harness.
All My Advice for Getting into YC
I participated in YC W21 with Wyndly (https://www.wyndly.com). I've also coached 8 people into YC. Many of these coached have gone on to raise unimaginable amounts and build sustaining companies.
Introduction
Successful YC applications follow a three-part framework:
- Identify your fundraising vertebrae - The 2-3 specific reasons investors would fund you
- Craft independent, powerful answers - Each question should stand alone as evidence of your potential
- Weave an overarching narrative - Connect everything into a compelling story about your inevitable success
Let's walk through how to execute each step effectively.
Step 1: Identify Your Fundraising Vertebrae
Begin by honestly assessing which 2-3 of these strengths form the backbone of your investment case:
- Traction: Impressive user/revenue growth (e.g., "20% week-over-week growth for 6 months")
- Market Size: Clear path to massive TAM (e.g., "$50B addressable market growing 15% annually")
- Unique Insight: Novel approach others have missed (e.g., "We discovered enterprise customers value X over Y")
- Team Advantage: Exceptional domain expertise or prior success (e.g., "We built and sold a similar product")
- Product Innovation: Technical or UX breakthrough (e.g., "Our algorithm improves accuracy by 40%")
- Problem Urgency: Critical pain point with growing demand (e.g., "Companies lose $5M annually to this issue")
Action steps:
- List evidence for each category
- Identify your 2-3 strongest vertebrae with concrete metrics
- Ensure these strengths appear consistently throughout your application
Step 2: Structure Each Answer Independently
For each application question:
The Formula
- Lead with your main point in the first sentence
- Include just 1-2 key messages that demonstrate business mastery
- Provide concrete evidence (metrics, experiments, customer quotes)
- Connect back to your vertebrae
Key Questions to Prepare
- What are you building? (Product focus)
- Who are you? (Team strength)
- How far along are you? (Traction evidence)
- What's the market opportunity? (Size and growth)
- Why will this become a $10B company? (Growth trajectory)
Action steps:
- Draft each answer separately
- Review to ensure each could stand alone
- Cut any content that doesn't directly support your vertebrae
Step 3: Craft Your Overarching Narrative
Thread these elements into a compelling story:
The Five-Part Structure
- Hook: The insight or opportunity that makes your venture unmissable
- Characters: What makes your founding team uniquely positioned to win
- Struggle: The critical problem you're addressing (and why it matters)
- Triumph: Early wins that validate your approach
- Determination: Why you'll succeed regardless of obstacles
Action steps:
- Identify your most compelling hook
- Highlight founder qualities that specifically match your problem
- Ensure your early wins directly validate your approach
- Demonstrate commitment beyond typical founder enthusiasm
Final Review Checklist
Before submitting, verify your application:
- Opens every answer with the main point immediately
- Consistently highlights your 2-3 vertebrae throughout
- Provides specific metrics rather than general claims
- Demonstrates deep domain expertise & business mastery
- Uses authentic, bullshit-free language
- Keeps all answers concise
- Makes a clear case for $10B potential
- Tells a cohesive story across all questions
Remember: YC partners review thousands of applications. Your job is to quickly demonstrate you're building something that could fundamentally reshape an industry and create billions in value.
Resources
How to Apply and Succeed at Y Combinator by Dalton Caldwell, YC Partner
Fundraising Vertebrae by me
How to Answer Questions on the Y Combinator Application by me
Essential Advice to Land a YC Interview
I've gone through YC (W21). I've also coached 5 people and gotten them into YC.
Here's the advice I always give everyone:
The main takeaway of each answer should be said as quickly as possible right at the top. There should be 1-3 central things that we want to communicate – nothing more.
The following should be the goal for each answer:
DEMONSTRATE THIS IS A $10B company!
Informative
No bullshit
Authentic
Math-backed
Review these resource:
How to Apply and Succeed at Y Combinator by Dalton Caldwell, YC Partner
Fundraising Vertebrae by me
How to Answer Questions on the Y Combinator Application by me
Fundraising Vertebrae
If you're a founder or if you're fundraising, you need to be using fundraising vertebrae.
I'm Aakash. I'm a Y Combinator founder, and I've raised millions of dollars. My company is Wyndly, where we fix allergies for life.
Fundraising vertebrae are what makes you compelling as an investment.
When your investor goes to a bar and talks to their friends, what are they saying? What are they going to mention? What excites them?
There's generally two to five reasons why someone would invest in your company and you know them, but you need to make it explicit. In your deck and in your pitch, here are the things you need to think about and here are what you should highlight. It can be any of the following
-traction
-market size
-a unique insight you have
-how good your team is
-your product itself
- the problem you're solving.
If you have two to three of these, that is what someone is investing on. When someone invests in you, they're making a bet. Any questions, let me know!